Seguin Gazette: SISD officials talk demographics, growth at workshop

Felicia Frazar
felicia.frazar@seguingazette.com

(Seguin) - With new housing developments planned and platted within the Seguin school district boundaries, some residents are worried about overcrowding at the facilities.

However, School District Strategies director of demographic research Brent Alexander explained to the Seguin ISD Board of Trustees that the district has room to handle the projected influx of students over the next 10 years on most campuses during a presentation to the board during a workshop on Tuesday.

“The main thing that we are here to talk about is that in the second half of 2017 almost 2,500 lots were platted within the district,” he said. “We’re seeing a lot of interest in these tracts around the district and in the city of Seguin. The majority of the activity has been down here by Koennecke over the last three years in the Southeast.”

Currently, within the school district’s boundaries, there are several new subdivisions that have been announced.

Seguin ISD Superintendent Matthew Gutierrez said the announcements of an influx of new homes created some cause for concern.

“As we knew that was coming, we’ve solicited feedback from the community ... a lot of concerns have been raised about older facilities,” he said. “Our trustees expressed that concern early on so I felt it was going to be very important for us ... to establish a facilities committee. We established that facilities committee with really a purpose of looking at our current or existing facilities and prioritizing what our biggest needs are based on the TASB facilities audit that was conducted in the fall and just really looking at what are our biggest needs and helping us — the school board and myself — make some decisions as to what the future holds.”

As part of the workshop, Alexander went into detail about the demographics of the district, the proposed subdivisions and how they will affect the campuses.

While many of the new housing developments are small, there are a couple that will make up the bulk of the 2,500 rooftops, Alexander said.

“We have 45 and 40 lots here and there that have been platted for different types of smaller projects,” he said. “There have been some major ones that have come through here since September.”

Among them are the Vista Lago Estates subdivision planning to create 662 new residences just north of McQueeney on FM 725, Greenspoint is looking to bring in 669 lots located on FM 78, Hiddenbrooke with 490 lots in the Villa Vista Estates and most notably, Arroyo Ranch which is expected to bring in 1,103 new homes, Alexander said. 

“We’re on the cusp of major development here in Seguin,” he said. “It is going to be interesting to see this summer who the builders are and do these developments get started as they’ve been publicly talked about.”

As it stands, Alexander said the housing developments are bringing in more students, but not as fast as some might think.

“Basically, you’re getting a new student for every four new houses,” he said. “It takes six to seven houses to give you an elementary student. It is taking more houses to give you growth.”

Alexander added that those numbers will change and grow a little over time, bringing in more children. 

Alexander broke down how the projected growth would affect each campus and group of campuses by grade levels when it comes to reaching capacity within the next 10 years.

“The pre-k and alternative school levels are not really a concern,” he said. “At the elementary level the total capacity is just a little above 3,800, we should be good based on a moderate scenario. Middle school is really the only area where we start to bump up against max capacity. High School should be good.”

Both middle school campuses have a capacity of 850. Barnes currently has a total enrollment of 861, while Briesemeister sits at 807. Barnes is projected to fluctuate around the max capacity for the next 10 years, while Briesemeister will slowly get closer to filling up.

“As you move out of that eight to 10-year time frame, both of the schools are right at capacity,” he said.

While the construction of new homes slowing in the Koennecke area, growth at the campus will slowly continue to climb, Alexander said.

“In the Koennecke Zone, even though the housing stops you still get an incremental growth as that community ages,” he said. 

However, the areas that are expected to see the biggest increase in potential students — Vogel and McQueeney — will be able to handle the additions.

“Where the majority of those new developments are in Vogel, in McQueeney, you can see they don’t go over capacity,” Alexander said. “At least Vogel doesn’t until 2027. The reason for that is they have very small classes right now and it is going to kind of dip and then rise. I’ve got over 150 kids coming into Vogel over 10 years and they are growing to the right at 550 (in attendance).” Gutierrez said the projected growth is good news for the district.

“We’re heading in a very encouraging direction as far as the potential to finally have our enrollment increase because we have been flat for many years,” he said. “As many of you all are aware, there have been a lot of developments lately and there is the potential just by Vogel elementary for over 1,500 new homes.”

With the new information, and the high school project complete, Gutierrez said the district can begin to explore the options for existing facilities, as well as how the district’s debt service is fairing.

“This was really an opportunity for the facilities committee and the board to hear about the district’s growth, but to also look at where we form the standpoint of as far as our finances — if we are going to look at upgrading facilities, what does our budget look like,” he said.

The board also heard a presentation by financial advisor Victor Quiroga, from Frost Bank, about the district’s bond indebtedness. 

Gutierrez said there are no recommendations about how to move forward at this time, but wanted to make sure everyone had all of the information they needed before continuing their look at district’s future.

“It is better to be proactive and keep everyone not only on that committee but the community informed as many questions are being raised about aging facilities like McQueeney, the stadium,” he said. “There are all of these discussions happening and we really just want to kind of funnel everything through the facilities committee. I just think it is a good opportunity for us to come together and really focus on what our district needs are. The future is very promising. It is going to take a few years for us to experience growth, but it is promising. With that growth, there is tax dollars, but there is also new faces and making sure that we have the facilities to be able to accommodate that growth.”

To read the story from the Seguin Gazette, please click here.